djn,
it doesn't make sense to look into this small-or-no-baffle thing, if we haven't looked into concepts like "constant directivity" and "power response" first. If you feel that those latter aspects are of no concern for you, it would be a waste of time and energy to give it a trial.
A second aspect: The advantages of a small baffle (if there are any) can be best recognized in the off-axis response. You really need to compare horizontal simulations at 30°, 45° and 60° (to both sides) with your 0° sim for both cases to understand. And yes, this small baffle act will need heavy EQ. If it doesn't, something would be wrong.

Rudolf
Just two quotes from Floyd Toole:
"In a small listening room we are in a transitional sound field, consisting of the direct sound, several strong early reflections, and a much diminished late reflected sound field. What we hear is dominated by the directional characteristics of the loudspeakers and the acoustic behavior of the room boundaries at the locations of the strong early reflections." (page 457)
"Important for localization, and very interesting from the perspective of sound reproduction, is the observation that the precedence effect appears to be most effective when the spectra of the direct and reflected sounds are similar [4], [18], [20]. This appears to be an argument for constant-directivity loudspeakers and frequency-independent (that is, broad-band) reflectors, absorbers, and diffusers. (page 458)
Both from
http://www.harman.com/EN-US/OurCompany/Technologyleadership/Documents/Scientific%20Publications/13686.pdf