[jqp]

I was reading this article about HTPCs http://gizmodo.com/5420853/why-its-finally-time-to-get-a-home-theater-pc?skyline=true&s=x, and I had this vision of Blu-Ray being a niche technology pretty soon (not my original idea of course, but this vision of Blu-Ray really popped into my mind).

LaserDisk finally died this year http://gadgets.boingboing.net/2009/01/14/all-laserdisc-player.html and I am sure Blu-Ray will also "last" many years, even if it is dying.

I own a total of 3 Blu-Rays to play on my PS3 ...admittedly I am not the DVD or Blu-Ray collecting type. I see used and even new DVDs for sale for 3.95 and I say to myself, wait for it on Blu-Ray!

Is it just a personal problem? What do you think?

[JDUBS]

Poor man's?  They get you for like $20-25 a disc!

Blu-Ray is a heck of a lot more widespread than laserdisc.  The fact that the Sony PS3 plays the format has helped with its adoption.

No way a niche product imo.

-Jim

[Rob Babcock]

I see it as a war over what entertainment will be like in the future.  As a 40 year old guy I grew up in an era where you could actually own something; the Labels would love us to merely rent.  How would you like your music to come with an EUL Agreement like computer software?  This will definitely be the norm if they succeed in moving entertainment software into "The Cloud" as many foresee.  Now, I'm no Luddite; I can see that for many people this would be great.  What's the average music collection of the typical member of AC?  Maybe a few thousand CDs?  Tens of thousands of LPs?  Kids today for the most part didn't necessarily grow up with the paradigm of walking into a store and walking out with a physical disc.  A collection for a kid under say, 25, is probably several thousand files on his iPod or PC.  Free from the restriction of needing a physical carrier a young person may not even see it as desirable.

Obviously we're a ways away from having the information infrastructure to stream 1080P with hi rez sound to 150 million homes simultaneously, but it's probably not all that far off.  Those of us old farts that want to cling to "local storage" of our "entertainment software" are probably gonna have to fight tooth & nail for the privilege.

[WGH]

I have been collecting music for 49 years and the idea of having no physical media is strange to me but certainly not to the iPod generation, so why not movies too? Actually once the technology is perfected it could be great. Very few people in the world have the space or the desire to store 1000 albums or movies, and if you (as a artist) want to sell to a global market then selling or renting bits is the only way to go. Listen to music or watch movies on demand, anytime, anywhere for a small subscription fee. Movie and music piracy is practically eliminated and when everyone joins fees can be kept low (yea right, only in my dreams, the distributors will charge what the market will bear).

There are rumors that Apple is moving to cloud distribution for it's music business, movies can't be to far behind.

Marketplace report: Why is Apple jumping into Lala land?

"Well, we do know that they are building this huge data center in North Carolina. I think the price is somewhere $1 billion. So looking at this Lala acquisition, and looking at this server farm that they have, there is the idea that they could be planning to use that to store music, what's otherwise known as putting stuff in the cloud, then letting people access their music via the Web."

Read the full report here: http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/12/07/pm-lala/

Wayne

[MaxCast]

Interesting.  I have a few questions if someone knows the answers.
How long does it take to down load a dvd over dsl?
How long does it take to down load a BD over dsl?
could it stream in real time?

[WGH]

I doubt one server farm could supply all the bandwidth needed for movies on demand. Please don't ask me how I know but a 350-550 MB video file can be downloaded in about 1/2 hour at 1000 kB/s (almost 1 MB/s) using bittorrent, which is the fastest speed I have seen. I am getting 10.45 Mb/s (1.3 MB/s) from my 12 Mb/s Qwest fiber optic line using http://www.speedtest.net/ so even downloading a 6 GB file would take a while.

My brother has cable movie on demand and the movies looked pretty good but I have never seen a cable movie on a real big screen to compare to a BD disk. The movies need a head start too, they don't stream in real time very well.

Wayne

[Audiophiliac]

I also am not a move collector. I have maybe 40 DVD movies. Only a handful are worth watching more than once or twice. I do not yet own a Bluray player but plan to. Mostly because I do not own a DVD player of any kind anymore other than my Xbox360 which is too loud to watch movies on really.

My take is no matter how I get them (Discs, downloads, etc), I am only going to buy the movies that are good enough to watch more than 2 or 3 times a year. Other than that, it is much more cost effective to rent them. And if it is something i am only going to watch once because I did not want to spend $10 to see it in the theater, I probably will not care if it is on DVD or Bluray. Redbox is a genius idea. If they would rent bluray for $2, that would be enough for me.

I agree that our bandwidth infrastructure as it is now, will not support mass market HD movies on demand or downloads. Sure, you can DL a few bluray titles in a week and watch them on the weekend. But who wants to plan that far ahead or wait that long?

Not only is Bluray going to stay around for a while....and it has too....so the people who back it can make some money on it first....it is really the best way to own HD movies currently IMHO.

[electricbear]

Many of the latest BluRay players give you the ability to download directly from Netflix. Although not in BluRay quality yet. It seems like the manufacturers of players are hedging their bets. Play discs and download movies as well. The word within the Av industry is that BluRay will be the last of the mediums that we will go out and buy. Going forward from here everything will be downloads.   

[shipdriver]

Since Blu-ray is orders of magnitude better (picture and sound) than Laserdisc, I would hardly call it a 'poor man's' anything. Now maybe Laserdisc is a poor man's DVD. Anyway, what limits there are on Blu-ray's future existence are tied to when disc media of any kind will disappear. Blu-rays do fill up 20-50 GB per movie, so easy downloading is a ways off- and we Americans love our special features. But flash media or other media, who knows what's coming?

[ralph1950]

I view streaming over Netflix (on Ruku box) at the present time, although I own a bunch of DVD and BluRay movies.  I like the streaming concept better though.  No storage and watch a move over & over whenever I want.  Also I get to see movies I never heard of before & would never have rented.  Some are quite good.  I just wish the quality was better though.  Kind of like a VHS tape on some & DVD on others.  And they had a larger selection.  Although it is growing every day.  It will get better as more people start this king of viewing instead of renting or buying.  I think this wil be the future & not owing a  disc.   One thing is though, you cannot take Netflix to your lake cabin or a buddys house to watch the movie.  (If you happen to own a lake house that is)

[Mike Nomad]

Interesting discussion. I don't miss owning hundreds of Laserdiscs any more than I miss owning hundreds of LPs: We have smaller stuff that looks and sounds better, and is a hell of a lot easier to move.

OK, I do miss looking at a 12" x 12" piece of artwork, and having liner notes to read...

I see Blu-Ray as the point where the entertainment industry can, for the first time, standardized the delivery of physical media one format. Blu-Ray can deliver Hi-Rez audio and HD video. CDs days are numbered. DVD is not far behind. DVD-A is, for the most part, dead. I don't know if DSD playback is part of the Blu-Ray spec or not. SACD has been (unfortunately) relegated to the status of a niche market. So, maybe it'll be a universe of two formats...

Cloud computing/delivery is ok for a physical minority of the market. US cable and telecomm companies do not have the necessary infrastructure in place (last mile, etc.) to make a meaningful go at what we would call ubiquitous.

[jqp]

Interesting discussion. I don't miss owning hundreds of Laserdiscs any more than I miss owning hundreds of LPs: We have smaller stuff that looks and sounds better, and is a hell of a lot easier to move.

OK, I do miss looking at a 12" x 12" piece of artwork, and having liner notes to read...

I see Blu-Ray as the point where the entertainment industry can, for the first time, standardized the delivery of physical media one format. Blu-Ray can deliver Hi-Rez audio and HD video. CDs days are numbered. DVD is not far behind. DVD-A is, for the most part, dead. I don't know if DSD playback is part of the Blu-Ray spec or not. SACD has been (unfortunately) relegated to the status of a niche market. So, maybe it'll be a universe of two formats...

Cloud computing/delivery is ok for a physical minority of the market. US cable and telecomm companies do not have the necessary infrastructure in place (last mile, etc.) to make a meaningful go at what we would call ubiquitous.

They can deliver amazing audio and video, with all kinds of special features, but will they? As I search for specific movies at a decent price, I am amazed at how much crap is being delivered. Unfortunately there are so many versions of a movie, many of them not up to the standard that you would want. For example I wanted Blade Runner a couple of years ago before Blu-Ray was even established. I bought 'The Directors Cut" on DVD which turns out to be the second to worse version of the movie available on disc! Imagine getting ready to watch this classic Future Noir film, having read multiple articles about it, checked out websites, etc.  and noticing that my disc is only playing in 2-Channel and that is all that is available on this DVD  !

Now I want to get the best version and I have to choose from about 10 DVD and Blu-Ray versions out there. Many popular movies have multiple disc versions which can be good but also confusing. Other movies have 1 mediocre version in Blue-Ray and 1 in DVD...I rented a Blu-Ray version of Blade Runner a while back that had very good audio. I am searching for the 5-disc Blu-Ray version now, since I have a PS3 and an Outlaw 950 which can handle all full audio.

Still amazed at the high prices. Don't they know time is running out on disc purchases?

As far as being the poor man's laser disc, I felt that Laser Disc was the ultimate technology of the day, complete with expensive technology and discs. Then it went away and became an expensive door-stop. Will Blu-Ray suffer the same fate?