[aerius]

Seems to me the high end audio industry has only grown with people's disposable incomes.  Its future is likely tied to the future of the economy.

Given how the US economy is going down the crapper these days, the future of high-end there doesn't look too bright.  On the other hand, US sales to foreign countries will likely go up a bit with the way the USD is dropping like a rock.  It might balance out, it might not, it's hard to say until it happens.

[martyo]

author=doug s. link=topic=45407.msg406592#msg406592 date=1190216397]
you are missing the point about what i am saying.  sure, you can easily spend five figures on a hi-end system, even shopping used - amhik!    

but, those young whippersnappers can get into it at an entry level, & work their way up, as funds allow.  yust like i did.  instead of spending $1k on an all-in-one p.o.s. from beast buy.  there's a big difference, imo, between a thoughtfully put-together system and a one size fits all piece of junk.  this is what separates hi-end from mid-fi, even at lower prices.  and, this idea was even written up in the mainstream media, four years ago:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3078269

doug s.

Hi Doug,

I always like those audio reviews on msnbc and in my newspaper......... :lol  Later on in the review he is talking about upgrading the caps and soldering. Sorry, speakers that are rated by the manufacturer at -2db @ 90hz, I could never call that high end when the bottom 2 octaves aren't there. 

I understand what you are trying to say, just like when I started. We got separates instead of Mom and Dads Silvertone or Magnavox console and it sounded way better. 

[mcgsxr]

I think it has been covered, but I think it important to differentiate between hi-end, and hi-fi, and hi-interest.

Clearly the first two have been covered in the marketplace over the years, but the last one is what continues - some folks (some audiophiles, some music lovers, some people who just hate silence or the sound of others) love to have music on.

We vary in our classification of what music is, and how to have it on, but the industry is doing OK - by that I mean that folks are still trying to make a living making music.  As for the hi fi industry, of late I have cared less, since I discovered used amps (and I mean 50+ year old used amps) and DIY speakers (so yes, I am still dependant on driver manufacturers, who are clearly linked to speaker manufacturers, which is linked to the stated question, BUT with the rise of dedicated DIY driver companies such as DIY Audio, CSS both leveraging the wares of Chinese built, US designed drivers) I see only a loose linkage between my interest, and the mainstream.

The mainstream has always ignored us wackos (those of us who would choose to broadly dedicate a room for audio, sit in the dark with music on, exchange cables etc) and carried on with their hideous playback systems.  Then again, as you can now get a car audio system from the manufacturer cobranded with a Hi Fi company (please, at least let's use the public Hi Fi definition here to include Bose, Mark Levinson, Harmon Kardon, Dynaudio etc) perhaps SOME headway is being made after all.

It is the mp3 (I choose to single it out to represent all lossy storage formats) that is perhaps both the saviour and downfall for audio - saviour because so many more people are turning to music daily.  Downfall because it fails to share values with those of us who favour fidelity over convenience.  I see devices that support FLAC and other lossless formats as the bridge vehicles, but I am sure that iPod sales dramatically swamp their competitors, so perhaps all is lost after all!

37 for the record.  GenX and DIY - how is that for dichotomy!

[mcullinan]

I have sprinkled fiber and metamucil on my audio cables and have notice a reduction in the noise level in my system.
Mike

[macrojack]

Starting to sound more "regular", is it?

[bpape]

Seems to me the high end audio industry has only grown with people's disposable incomes.  Its future is likely tied to the future of the economy.

Given how the US economy is going down the crapper these days, the future of high-end there doesn't look too bright.  On the other hand, US sales to foreign countries will likely go up a bit with the way the USD is dropping like a rock.  It might balance out, it might not, it's hard to say until it happens.

Might be just what we need to get some more US companies back in the game.  When was the last time US goods were considered inexpensive? 

Also, I find it very interesting that in the poll < 20% of the respondents are either under 25 or over 55.  Looks like the high end has a good 20 years or so left in it.  I'm not too worried about the younger ones.  Most people under 25 don't really have tons of disposable income to be buying a high end system.  As they get older they do, and probably the same proportion will continue to turn into high end spenders.

Bryan

[*Scotty*]

In order for the status quo in the High End industry to be maintained, an opportunity to hear high fidelity or even cutting edge music playback has to exist. With the demise of brick and mortar stores and the conversion of remaining B&M operations to home theater installation salons,
these opportunities are rapidly disappearing. Most people will not risk substantial amounts of cash on equipment they have never heard.
I was first exposed to high fidelity nearly 30 years ago through B&M operations selling Audio Research,Revox,Ampzilla,Magnepan,Infinity,Mitchell Gyrodeck,RH Labs,
Dynavector,Denon, to name a few names. I think the Good Old Days are gone for good. A couple of other factors come to mind  that are contributing to it's demise are the loss of the middle class and the manufacturing jobs that supported them and the diversion of disposable income into the computers that we are using to communicate our thoughts on this forum. It is also arguable that a sample consisting of 109 people derived in this manner out of 10058 members may not be representative of the population as a whole. I think any conclusions from this poll regarding the future well being of our hobby are unwarranted.
Scotty

[Zero]

Bryan,

I'm 25 and still have little disposable income.  That said, I'm most likely going to order another one of your panels before years end. 

[Rocket_Ronny]

Since 40 is about half of what I will walk on this planet spinning through space, I now count backwards from forty.

So that makes me 35. 

Rocket_not quite at mid life crisis_Ronny

[bpape]

Bryan,

I'm 25 and still have little disposable income.  That said, I'm most likely going to order another one of your panels before years end. 

As you should.  That's a relatively inexpensive improvement to the 'system'. 

Bryan

[TONEPUB]

I don't know.  When I was 25 I drove a three hundred dollar car so I could
have a twenty thousand dollar stereo....

It's all priorities!  Don't count the young folks out.  Obsession can strike
at any age.

[rabpaul]

The question you have to ask is really how much money you had when you where a twenty something, enough to afford the system you have now?

Don't give up on the younger generation they do know high fidelity, they have better hearing just perhaps not the available funds or the exposure to what is real high fidelity. Case in point my 14 year old daughter can tell that CDs on an Marantz (budget model) sound better via AKG ear phones than it does via our car stereo.

I would also hardly think that high fidelity is reserved for only 2 channel audio. I would consider 1080p Plasma/LCD is hi-fi when compared to the standard CRT TVs.

You just can't survive if you only concentrate on 2 channel audio and this is why almost all vendors have their fingers into HT. Lets not forget a high-end HT costs a lot more than a high-end 2 channel system from the same manufacturer by virtue of number of components Speakers, Projector/Panel/Screen, Room.

Is anyone going to say HT is dying? I think not so hi-fi is not dying either.

[JLM]

Looks like 75% of us are 35 or olders according to the current poll results.  I'm not suprised.

Loss of hearing and healthcare insurance are perhaps the biggest unspoken threats to the high-end.  Allow me to explain.  We were the only major population center not to see major casualties during WWII, so we have a huge population that is now 70 and older.  8,000 Americans a day turn 60 (the post WWII baby boomers).   The U.S. demographic continues to shift older (history has shown this to always happen as a culture itself reaches "maturity" and losses interest in "family maters".  17% of the U.S. GNP is devoted to healthcare, most is spent in this demographic.  With no meaningful costs restaints in sight it will continue to go up.  And we don't talk about it much, but we suffer hearing loss with age, so what's the point?  (I've always seen life as a crossing of disposable income going up as hearing ability goes down as one ages.) 

Before 1980 audio was one of the few techie hobbies available.  That is now lost to home computing, which makes audio nearly laughable as a "technical hobby".  This has shifted the "high-end" as a whole more towards being music lovers.  Even then please note that most ardent fans of music aren't into equipment, they perform or go to performances, and so have little interest in a nice home system.  Low grade musical media has been with us for even longer, so I don't see MP3 or other low grade media as a threat.  But I do consider HT as a huge threat, simply because most folks can't dedicate two rooms (or be in two places at once) and so in a vast majority of cases HT will be selected over audio.  This has affected the older among us as bricks and mortar have converted from audio to HT and they won't venture into the web to learn, much less buy.

Some of what I'm reading (little disposable income when young, being too active when young to be interested, lack of quality recordings of "good" music) hasn't changed since I started into the hobby (the 70s).

Bottom line: we're getting older and losing interest, audio is no longer a "high tech" draw, and HT is drawing away numbers.  The answer may lay with iPod/high-end audio convergent products that embrace each other, probably within a HT setting.  I'm thinking about a iPod cradle that plugs into the HT system with remote function (and maybe with some "magic" to enhance its sound for home use).

[elmalloc]

I'm 27.

I don't have a super high end system, but I like to think I have several mid range systems that I could upgrade sometime in the future.

I'm beginning my foray into tube 2-channel audio.

-ELmO

[mcgsxr]

Excellent discussion points made by many, as I have come to expect from AC!

The system I currently own actually represents about 20% of the investment I had in my 20's - discovering DIY has dramatically shifted how I invest in audio - mind you, the WAF has dropped too.  My old Totem/Sugden/Sony changer system on Atlantis Pro stands, and a DIY rack looked very nice to most.

My current system of DIY OB, 50+ year old console amp, and SB3 front end, lacks that universal visual appeal...

Perhaps in time, the idea that 2 channel is king will die off, as JLM points out the popularity is on the rise for sure, and perhaps that is not all bad.  Mono used to be king after all, perhaps 5.1/6.1/7.1/9.1 will eventually be well leveraged and produce quality sound for the masses.

HT is the area for $, no doubt, outside the really niche high end firms for 2 channel.  There also exists, as exhibited here, a groundswell for affordable 2 channel.

JLM hit the nail on the head for me - few will dedicate any rooms for this, let alone two, one for HT and one for 2 channel.  I am lucky enough to be able to use my unfinished basement for 2 channel, and the main floor for HT.  In time that will change though.  Long term I seek to finish the basement, move the existing HT gear down there with the proposed pool table, and do a more "adult" main floor family room with plasma/lcd over fireplace, and likely (hold your tongues!) a Yamaha/Polk type all in 1 box for surround plus sub.  Leather furniture etc, so that it can function as a living room for conversation, or pop on the hockey game (my wife and I are typical Canucks, and love our frozen pond sport!).

So that will then have the basement room in flux - where will my 2 channel system go?  Will I seek to integrate it into the HT down there?  Will I have both systems setup, but functionally separate?  Likely the latter, since the real estate down there won't matter, and the thought of my OB b200 Visatons being abused for movies does not sit well with me.  But then again, I am a confirmed gear guy....

[TheChairGuy]

75% older than 35 is actually somewhat startlingly significant 

I realize we have an international audience that votes, but US participation at AC is in the high 80%-range last time I checked - so most of the respondents were likely Americans.

Anybody wanna' hazard a guess what the median age is (according to Census 2000) in the U.S. today?   Try, 35.3 years - up from 32.9 years in 1990.  That is, fully 50% of the US is over 35.3, and fully 50% is under 35.3.

Coupling that with the likely fact that actually actively using the internet is more likely to be a younger, rather than older, participant (greater familiarity with technology that comes with youth is a given, isn't it?) and you have a very scary figure. 

If 75% responded that they were over the age of 35 doesn't at all bode well for the future health of 2 channel audio.  We are likely to have far fewer offerings in the future, and higher prices, due to less competition and economies of scale for manufacturers.  Higher prices and less offerings is part of a cyclical, repetitive spiral to doom. 

Possible younger 2 channel enthusiasts, with less disposable income, have other, better value, alternatives to spend their discretionary dollars on now. Without them involved, the rest (literally) die off 

This process has already played out in vinyl, where under-$300 cartridges and under-$1500 turntables (I mean, come on, you can get one helluva' big and beautiful flat screen television now for $1500.00 - that's a whole lot more apparent value than a similarly priced turntable) are now thought of as 'budget'.  The only manufacturers that offer real budge faire under these prices tend to be older, well-established makers that  have long ago paid off the tooling costs for new products and can offer better prices than competition because of it. It is only because there is still significant competition from 70/80's gear that new prices are likely kept somewhat in check. If that old gear starts drying up or becomes increasingly mechanical faulty and or parts availability evaporates - a lot more vinyl enthusiasts will be lost who won't pay the premium prices for new gear. 

High Fidelity, at least the 2 channel variety, is indeed dying...as it's participants likely are, as well. But, it's a long, drawn out process that won't likely see it's statistical end for several decades into the future.

We ought to be real nice to one another...we are mostly last of a dying breed   

[doug s.]

here's how i look at it - more than half of the poll respondents so far, are <45.  hi-end audio ain't got nothing to worry about, imo. 

you can find articles written >20 years ago, fretting about the death of hi-end audio.  nothing has changed...   

doug s.

[ohenry]

...High Fidelity, at least the 2 channel variety, is indeed dying...as it's participants likely are, as well. But, it's a long, drawn out process that won't likely see it's statistical end for several decades into the future...

You guys hurry up and check out so I can buy some good, cheap tubes and used vinyl.  It's all about me at this point.

[bpape]

75% older than 35 is actually somewhat startlingly significant 

I realize we have an international audience that votes, but US participation at AC is in the high 80%-range last time I checked - so most of the respondents were likely Americans.

I guess it's all in how you want to present the numbers. 

55% are less than 45.

84% are less than 55. 

The other thing is I think we're getting a couple things confused.  We keep thinking of high end having to be 2 channel.  If and when they come out with a GOOD, viable multichannel music format that's accepted by the masses, then we potentially don't have to have 2 different systems - 1 for music, 1 for HT.  This allows the same disposable income to be used on a single system and the overall quality can be improved to be more 'high end.'

Bryan

[macrojack]

The more we move toward video and computerization, the more we move away from the abilities of the small entrepreneurial start-up and the fewer non-mass market options we will see. Large corporations do not strive for the best audio performance but rather the best sales performance. When those two coincide we have a happy coincidence, when they deviate we get mass market crap. So, I guess, what I'm saying is that the future of high performance audio depends on the level of performance the masses demand. I just don't expect that to be very high. The same as it ever was.

As a demographic, the discriminating audiophile population does not even show up in the polls. There are too few of us. We will not be seen as a profit center and so our desires will not be addressed.