[AKSA]

I extend my sympathies to all concerned in the appalling hurricane which has visited New Orleans, Biloxi and Mobile, crossing three states and still inflicting what is now described as the worst hurricane damage in US history.  Estimates range up to $US30b of damage;  loss of life will run to many hundreds, rivalling US losses in Iraq.

I cannot imagine what it must be like to watch helplessly as a family member loses a life, with entire family assets relentlessly destroyed.  This all points up the unimaginable fury of nature, and makes you wonder on the notion of revenge.......

Hugh

[ScottMayo]

This all points up the unimaginable fury of nature, and makes you wonder on the notion of revenge.......

Overheating one's own planet is generally not a good idea.

[Marbles]

Scott, don't blame Hugh...it's not like he makes TUBE amps  

[Captain Humble]

and makes you wonder on the notion of revenge.......

What are you wondering about???
Revenge from who?
Revenge for what?
 

[andyr]

This all points up the unimaginable fury of nature, and makes you wonder on the notion of revenge.......

Overheating one's own planet is generally not a good idea.

Absolutely, Scott,

... but I believe Gaia has heated up the planet in the past far more than man has been able to - ie. it's a millennia cycle of heating and cooling.

Why do I think this?  Bcoz we know that in the past ice age (only 10,000-odd years), the sea level was many hundreds of feet lower than it is now because of all the water locked up as icecaps and glaciers ... thus the early Aborigines were able to walk across Bass Straight to Tasmania (from the "mainland" of Australia, for you foreigners out there).  And it's probable that 30/40/50,000 years ago when the Aborigines arrived first in Australia, they did so by walking from what is now Malaysia/Indonesia.

We also know the sea level has been a lot higher than it is now ... so polar ice caps must've melted in the past, to create this extra water.

This shouldn't stop audiophiles owning tube amps or, even worse, Class A amps tho!  

Regards,

Andy

[AKSA]

Captain Humble,

Indeed.  Good question.  Can you tell me?

Generally, in the human world, fury is unleashed in the act of revenge.  Perhaps Mother Nature is different, and takes her revenge for no good reason......

I'm more concerned about those suffering right now than the reasons why, whatever they are.......

Hugh

[gonefishin]

What a shame to drag the topic of destruction to various theories of political motivation.  Right now, I would imagine, you could say that the earth is in a stable stage...or you can say at least that it's certainly desirable for us at the moment

   But just because it's at a current desirable state doesn't mean that it's not following a course that it has many times before.  The last "little ice age" that occurred was in the medieval times (from about 1400-1800)...it's effects, while mightily profound for those that watched the glaciers grow nearer year by year...it's effects were still (essentially) mild.

    It is said that during the last 10million years the earth has had 10mmajor ice ages and numerous "little ice ages" like the most recent one that we've had.  It's also said that right now we are in a warming period...or (more accurate) near the end of one.  Scientist still aren't certain if or when another ice age will come...or of what scale it will be.  But this is something that the earth has done many times before.

   There's different theories on "why" the earth goes thru the dynamics of these major (and minor) climate changes.  Some describe the earth as not having a stable rotation on both it's axis and in it's rotation. Causing the earth to "wobble" in a slightly different orbit on a slightly different axis.  This causing the dramatic changes in climate leading to the "little ice ages"...or one of the major ten.   

   It seems that you may get varying theories on why this has happened so many times in the past, rather than those who claim the validity of the previous ice ages (large and small).  Yet, enter politics...you get politicians and some of their scientists stating how the pollutants that we're adding to the atmosphere are leading us to destruction.  These same ploticians and appointee scientist also never state one time about the earths volatile past regarding previous ice ages and warming periods.  Most others that I have talked to would also lead you to believe that the last (rather small) ice age that we've had...is the only ice age that we have had.  I really don't know what the previous "gaseous state" of the earth was...but even with the current gasoline burning cars and arasol sprays...right now...I'd guess that we're living in a fairly stable period.           

  I'm not saying that its not wise to cut down on current pollution.  Just for the mere fact of providing better air for us to breath is reason enough for me.  Have you ever once hear a politician or an environmentalist refer back to the previous ice ages.  If so...I'd like to read the transcripts of that speech.  There will come a day when we will no longer roam the earth just as our previous "prehistoric creatures".  I suppose the only hope we can wonder about is that the cockroach again survives thru another age.  Hmmm...so perhaps there's hope for the politicians too.

  dan

[gonefishin]

I'm more concerned about those suffering right now than the reasons why, whatever they are.......

Hugh

   your a kind soul

[wmeckle]

I'm more concerned about those suffering right now than the reasons why, whatever they are.......

Hugh

   your a kind soul

     After the suffering dies away with time, I wonder about the records and artifacts that are lost. New Orleans was the birth of Jazz. Been there many times, and am also sad to see it destroyed.
     
     On another subject, oil shortage, global warming, loss of the rain forest, etc. etc. is not the problem, it is TOO MANY people.

[AKSA]

I think Bill is dead right.

Life is a random process, subject to the laws of probability.  Galveston was destroyed by hurricane in 1900, and the city razed to the ground.  In the intervening century, on roughly a thirty year cycle, there have been hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, the Carribean, and the tornado belt around Kansas.  A big one destroyed Darwin, Australia, in 1974.  It's all time and probability, not necessarily global warming or greenhouse gases.  These modern day issues will change the probabilities, certainly, but they won't be causative, as hurricanes have been around since the dawn of time.

What makes the natural disaster so traumatic is high population densities - an overbuilt environment.  Lots of people, lots of tar and cement, inadequate protection for residents, flying metal debris, poor construction leading to flood damage and collapse.  This applies to the levee bank near the shore line at New Orleans which was clearly not high enough.

Now the biggest problem facing New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile and all the other badly affected towns in Louisiana and Mississippi is the flood damage, the grim possibility of waterborne diseases due to breakdowns in sanitation, and the looting.  People in a desperate situation act with desperation, and we may yet see even more deaths as authorities move to uphold the rule of law.  The fact that the poor and dispossessed are suffering most won't help, as these folk perceive they have little to lose.

It would be a terrible predicament if New Orleans was not rebuilt.  I fervently hope that authorities start reconstruction immediately, but I see indecision already.  Furthermore, with 20 gulf oil rigs now missing, and gas shortages in stark evidence, we can expect a sharp spike in the spot price which will have draconian repercussions across the US in the present climate of unrestrained energy demand from China.

This is a dreadful situation, showing clearly the random fury of nature, and pointing up that we should take nothing for granted.  It shows that for all our efforts, we cannot see what lies ahead, and making provision for the unimaginable is not an option.  It's a sublime pleasure to drive to the country on a sunny day, but it's possible life will change profoundly in the next twenty years and the Sunday drive will be solely the preserve of the wealthy.

As Bill says, too many people.......

Cheers,

Hugh

[ginger]

Those of you who are famililiar with this forum will know me, Ginger - I'm the Senior Electronic Design Engineer for the Laser Airborne Depth Sounder system of Tenix LADS Corporation.
We also run (ran) a US Office in Biloxi, Mississippi with a staff of 12 people.
All but 2 of these people evacuated to Florida. 2 decided to "weather" the storm at one of their mothers houses which has survived hurricanes for 60 years and survived this one too, with some damage. 4 off the 12 staff have lost their houses/apartments entirely - they simply don't exist anymore, another 6 have houses still standing with serious damage and amazingly 2 have almost intact houses with very little damage.
Oh - and our Office is still standing, its just 4 foot under water, along with all the very expensive data processing equipment etc.
The scale of damage is hardly comprehendable, even to those of us who are getting first hand accounts from those who were there.

Light hearted aside: Hugh - you will be pleased to hear that Scott, one of our Senior Hydrographic Surveyors managed to find somewhere safe to garage his vintage Mustang he bought just 2 weeks ago. So even though his apartment is gone he still has his Mustang.

Cheers,
Ginger

[soitstarts]

Rapes, murders, 1000's dead, shoot to kill orders, "refugees"....
Sounds like, dare I say, a war zone

What is happening to our world? I can understand why people not usually inclined towards religion can sometimes be drawn into it during times of upheaval.

[AKSA]

Thanks Ginger,

Interesting information.......  Biloxi was extremely hard hit, though not flooded like New Orleans.

I note with concern that US Army Engineers are saying anything from 30 to 80 days to repair the levee and pump out the city.  I would say when the levels drop back a huge number of bodies will be found, and that while cholera is not likely it's possible hepatitis, malaria and dengue could become a threat.

Of long term concern is Cancer Alley, the 150 mile strip from New Orleans to Biloxi where a majority of the southern US petrochemical storage and refineries are located.  There are some particularly nasty chemicals used here, and indications are coming in that a lot of the industrial complexes are destroyed and there could be dangerous toxic contamination.  If this is true, then we could see much of the residential housing condemned, and many of the poor folk living in these areas might not be able to return ever.  This will create huge social upheaval and disenfranchisement in an area already the home of the Blues.  I find myself wondering what the response would have been to an earthquake or similar disaster in Orange County, CA.  Tough times ahead......

Cheers,

Hugh

[ScottMayo]

It's all time and probability, not necessarily global warming or greenhouse gases. These modern day issues will change the probabilities, certainly, but they won't be causative, as hurricanes have been around since the dawn of time.

Yes, but's not quite that simple. First off, hurricanes are size-limited by available energy, and not much else. As oceans get warmer, there is more energy made available. A type 3 hurricane, while no joke, is usually not that big a deal either. A type 5 that comes ashore - nearly what happened in Lousiana - knocks down all major structures.  It's not economically feasible to build structures to survive super-storms - so it's a bad idea to encourage them to form.

Secondly, we have a pretty good idea that Earth's weather varies within certain bounds and there's something of a cycle to it. Humanity can survive within those bounds, even the ice ages.

But we don't understand the mechanisms that keep weather in those bounds, and that might be breakable. Break them and the results could be extremely unpredictable.

In general, it's not smart to run uncontrolled, planet-wide experiments on the only planet you have. You only have to get really unlucky once.

None of this excuses the design of New Orleans - the whole area should be filled in, and rebuilt 30 feet above sea level. It won't happen, unfortunately...

[stvnharr]

I find myself wondering what the response would have been to an earthquake or similar disaster in Orange County, CA.



No need to limit your imagination and wondering to places that are 10,000 miles away.  
Why not wonder about your own fair city?  Surely it is not populated with 3 million rich and middle class people, and no poor people, and no poor sections.

[AKSA]

Steven,

Indeed.  Recently, in a local industrial suburb with a very poor residential area (West Heidelberg), there was a huge fire, in which hundreds of tons of plastics burned.

Nothing was said in the press or newspapers.  Only poor people lived near the factory;  no one launched a class action - they should have, because the concentration of toxic gases was so strong even I suffered mild asthma from three miles away.  Imagine the effects within 500 yards........

Cheers,

Hugh