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Phil - I see a palm tree in your photo. Those usually exist in places that are subject to high winds. Is that why your panels are embedded? Or did you do that just for aesthetics?
Also - the power companies don't like independent solar. NPR says they are working on repealing the credits/deductions. Given that it will probably won't go very far, they are going towards increasing the rates for non-solar homes to compensate. Now's a good time to get it done.
I live in an all-electric house. Built when the local (now long-mothballed) nuke plant was supposed to provide electricity at next to no cost. But due to my conservative living my annual bill is less than $1000 total and that includes a large pool. Most people would find my home uncomfortably warm or cold seasonally. Payback for me would be doubtful. I already have my best roof exposure covered with pool solar panels. I do not worry that there is a finite source of carbon in the ground. What worries me is that long before we run out of carbon the atmosphere will be beyond repair. So thank you to all solar panel users. One thing to think about is your lifestyle. People who are retired or have one person home during the day will benefit most from solar electric. I have a friend who just installed a system. He loves it but explained to me how their habits have changed. Excess electricity they sell to the local power company is much less per kwh than electricity they purchase. Therefore they do cooking, laundry, and pool filtering during the day when they are producing enough energy to cover those requirements. Here in central CA that would normally be a no-no during the summer peak A/C hours. So if you are considering solar and wonder about payback, consider your lifestyle. Will you be able to maximize the potential benefits?
Power companies might not like lots of things like - http://www.bloomenergy.com/For now they don't have something cost effective for a homeowner. However, if they get the cost of the technology down, power companies won't be overly happy (the way cable companies don't like HBO being sold via the web).
Distributed power is the future--especially as better storage technologies come along. Utilities could still make money by shifting there focus to installation and maintenance of distributed power plants, but they don't seem to be showing much interest in modifying their business model.
A lot of interest and a lot of hesitation expressed here. But maybe you want to look beyond the purest ledger details and consider jumping in with both feet. Maybe you will invest in solar just because it's something you want. After all, what is the payback time on your preamp or speakers? It's never in most cases so perhaps a slightly different perspective would make you more careful about investing.I know my payback time and I think I may have made a wise purchase but I don't know. Prices may go down but once the current IRS tax credit lapses, you will lose an opportunity that is not likely to be equaled by tech advances in the field. It's something like buying a computer in that there really is no best time to take the plunge. The field advances quickly and you really can't defeat the inevitable obsolescence factor no matter how you twist the numbers or how long you wait. I would urge anyone who is tempted to install PV panels to just up and do it. There's no time like the present. And, incidentally, you'll get some useful info from this thread but you must also investigate the circumstances in your area. The validity of this venture can be greatly influenced by local details.
I'm still concerned about the efficiency, reliability and serviceability (meaning the company will remain in business and have the parts over time). There have been a lot of swings in the solar market in the last decade or so.Despite the current political and utility hostility to solar, I think that in about five years (hopefully less) the tide of opinion will overwhelmingly turn to distributed solar as the effects of fossil fuel use become hugely and incontrovertibly negative (as if they aren't now - but some people are slow). At which time I think it likely there will be better credits (state, federal and utility) than have existed in the recent past.Likewise, I hope that concurrently there will be an increase in efficiency due to new technology and a decrease in cost due to an increase in supply and new design/production breakthroughs. All leading to a more stable, long term market.My perspectives anyway, fwtw.
If you live where electricity if expensive, the tide turned long ago. Germany, California. and elsewhere already have a large solar base. The equipment is proven. Reliability is not an issue. Even if your installer is gone, there are will be service available, should you need it.Because the cost has already come down significantly in the last 5 years, government incentives are less necessary and declining, and will most likely diminish, rather than increase in coming years.